Less than a month after signing, the U.S.-Iran memorandum has effectively unraveled, with Washington resuming airstrikes and Tehran retaliating after attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
The shipping clause appears to have broken the deal: Iran argued it could manage strait traffic and potentially levy tolls after 60 days, while the U.S. insisted passage remain free and outside Iranian control.
U.S. forces have restored a naval blockade on Iranian ports, reopened sanctions on Iranian oil exports and on Thursday fired on a ship they said was trying to breach the blockade.
Traffic through Hormuz briefly rose after the accord but stayed well below prewar levels and has now plunged again, even as a separate Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire has largely held.
The broader 60-day push for a final peace and nuclear accord now looks stalled, with no visible progress, IAEA access still blocked at bombed sites and a proposed $300 billion reconstruction fund unresolved.
With strikes hitting neighboring countries, is the US-Iran conflict spiraling into a full-blown regional war?
With the peace deal broken and a new leader in Iran, what is the next move in this dangerous geopolitical chess match?
As a multinational force forms, can the vital Strait of Hormuz be reopened before the global economy suffers further?
Over 100 Days of US-Iran Tensions: Strait of Hormuz Closure and the Worldwide Energy Crisis
Overview
The report details how the US-Iran conflict, sparked by US-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026, has escalated over more than 100 days, severely disrupting the Strait of Hormuz—a vital global oil route. This blockade has led to a massive loss of 1.15 billion barrels of oil and heightened global energy insecurity. The situation is marked by repeated military confrontations, including downed US aircraft and attacks on commercial shipping, which have undermined diplomatic efforts to de-escalate. The ongoing instability threatens not only regional peace but also the prospects for a US-Iran deal, with far-reaching economic and humanitarian consequences.