Updated
Updated · The Globe and Mail · Jul 7
Canada Posts C$4.2 Billion May Trade Surplus as Exports Hit Record C$77.1 Billion
Updated
Updated · The Globe and Mail · Jul 7

Canada Posts C$4.2 Billion May Trade Surplus as Exports Hit Record C$77.1 Billion

3 articles · Updated · The Globe and Mail · Jul 7

Summary

  • C$4.2 billion marked Canada’s biggest monthly trade surplus since May 2022 in May, after merchandise exports rose 0.9% to a record C$77.1 billion and imports slipped 0.2%.
  • 22% export growth from February to May was driven largely by higher commodity prices tied to the U.S.-Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruption, though real export volumes were essentially flat.
  • 16% growth in metal ores and non-metallic mineral exports, led by sulphur, and a 50.7% jump in aluminum exports to C$1.2 billion more than offset a 2% drop in energy exports.
  • C$11.6 billion was Canada’s trade surplus with the United States, up from C$10.3 billion, while exports to the rest of the world fell 0.3%, suggesting limited progress in diversifying beyond the U.S.
  • US$70 oil since the mid-June peace deal has already retreated from May’s US$90-US$110 range, prompting economists to warn the trade boost may fade even as net exports should support Q2 growth.

Insights

Is Canada's record trade surplus a fleeting boom built on global conflict, masking deeper economic risks ahead?
With CUSMA's future uncertain, how can Canada pivot its economy away from an increasingly protectionist United States?