Cocoa Holds Near 5.5-Month Highs as West African Rains Threaten 1.8 MMT Ivory Coast Crop
Updated
Updated · Barchart · Jul 1
Cocoa Holds Near 5.5-Month Highs as West African Rains Threaten 1.8 MMT Ivory Coast Crop
3 articles · Updated · Barchart · Jul 1
Summary
September ICE NY cocoa rose 0.28% on Wednesday while London cocoa ended flat, leaving prices just below last week’s 5.5-month highs after a more than 20% two-week rally.
Heavy rain in Ivory Coast and Ghana has flooded roads, blocked access to farms and ports, and raised brown rot and black pod risks, threatening supplies from countries that produce more than half the world’s cocoa.
Early surveys already point to a weak 2026/27 Ivory Coast main crop at about 1.8 MMT, down 18% from roughly 2.2 MMT in 2025/26, with fresh July surveys due before the September harvest.
London futures lagged because the pound hit a 1.5-week high, while an El Niño confirmed on June 10 and NOAA’s 67% chance of a Super El Niño keep medium-term supply fears elevated.
Bearish offsets remain: Ivory Coast port arrivals are up 20% year on year to 2.04 MMT, ICE inventories reached a 1.75-year high of 3,017,796 bags, and North American and European grindings fell in the first quarter.