Aleksandr Lunin’s viral video threatened that soldiers could “turn weapons against the Kremlin,” then he withdrew the warning a day later, saying any real revolt would happen quietly rather than through a public appeal.
The episode surfaced as Russia’s war finances deteriorate: the budget deficit through May reached 2.6% of GDP—about $83 billion—already double 2025’s full-year level, while parliament let the finance ministry borrow and spend beyond prior limits.
Ukraine’s deeper drone strikes and battlefield pressure are adding costs through fuel shortages, rising death-benefit payouts and more than $1 billion in company spending on improvised defenses that Moscow has not reimbursed.
Public strain is also widening, with inflation, high interest rates and rationed gasoline fueling anger, while military bloggers describe brutal losses and abuse inside the ranks.
Analysts say Putin still holds power, but mounting economic pain and war fatigue could widen elite fractures over time, even if they stop short of an outright revolution.