Aluminum Rally Stalls Below $4,000 as Asian Supply Blunts Iran War Shock

2 articles · Updated · The Japan Times · Jun 22

$4,000-a-ton aluminum fears have eased after Middle Eastern smelters rerouted alumina supplies and kept some shipments moving through the Strait of Hormuz, averting the widespread shutdowns many traders had expected.
China and Indonesia helped cap the squeeze with rising exports and ramping production, though Middle Eastern smelters still made deep output cuts and the scale of those losses remains hard to measure.
JPMorgan said a move to $4,000 is taking longer than expected because of Asia's strong supply response and heavy inventory drawdowns, while Goldman sees prices drifting toward $3,000 over the coming year.
That outlook is still clouded by thinner operational buffers, China's production cap and Indonesia's power constraints, leaving the pace of market rebalancing sharply disputed.