Updated

Updated · Los Angeles Times · Jun 18

Toy Story 5 Targets $150M-Plus Domestic Debut as Disney Leans on a $3 Billion Franchise

Updated

Updated · Los Angeles Times · Jun 18

Toy Story 5 Targets $150M-Plus Domestic Debut as Disney Leans on a $3 Billion Franchise

Q: Will record box office prove critics wrong about the franchise's 'worst' rated Toy Story film?

Probably not in the way the question suggests. If “Toy Story 5” opens to a franchise-record $140 million domestically and about $275 million worldwide, it would show that critics’ slightly cooler response has not hurt audience demand. But it would not really prove critics “wrong,” because the reviews are still strongly positive. The key fact is that “Toy Story 5” is only the lowest-rated film in an exceptionally acclaimed series. At 93% Certified Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, it remains a critical hit by normal standards, even if it trails the near-perfect scores of the earlier films. That means the debate is less about critics rejecting the movie and more about whether audiences care that it is the least acclaimed entry in a very high-performing franchise. The box office tracking suggests they may not. Presales are running ahead of “The Super Mario Galaxy Movie” at the same stage, and audience interest is especially strong among women under 25, a group tied closely to Gen Z, which has become a major force in theatrical attendance. The Juneteenth holiday frame and a strong summer market also support a big launch. If the film delivers those numbers, the clearer takeaway will be that brand strength, nostalgia, family appeal and Pixar’s event status can outweigh relative critical rankings. A record opening would not overturn the reviews; it would show that the “worst”-reviewed mainline “Toy Story” is still, by most measures, a well-reviewed film with major commercial power.

3 articles · Updated · Los Angeles Times · Jun 18

$150 million to $175 million is the latest opening-weekend range for “Toy Story 5” in the U.S. and Canada, which would top the franchise’s previous $121 million debut set by 2019’s “Toy Story 4.”
Disney is pitching the sequel around cross-generational loyalty, a plotline about kids’ tech fixation, and a new Taylor Swift song that added extra buzz at last week’s premiere.
A strong launch would bolster a broader theatrical rebound: Roth Capital Partners sees second-quarter domestic box office rising 6.5% to $2.8 billion, a post-pandemic high.
The stakes are higher for Disney because “Toy Story” has generated more than $3 billion worldwide over 30 years, even as Marvel and “Star Wars” have recently delivered weaker box-office results.
For Pixar, the film also underscores a sequel-heavy strategy after originals proved less reliable; “Inside Out 2” reached nearly $1.7 billion, while the 2022 spinoff “Lightyear” stalled at $226 million.